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導(dao)讀(du)：乌兹别克斯坦共(gong)和國(guo)将於(yu)7月(yue)9日(ri)举行(xing)总统大(da)选。現(xian)任(ren)总统米(mi)尔濟(ji)約(yue)耶(ye)夫有(you)望(wang)獲(huo)得(de)連(lian)任。乌新(xin)任駐(zhu)華(hua)公(gong)使(shi)图尔苏诺夫·巴体尔先(xian)生(sheng)為(wei)觀(guan)察(cha)者(zhe)網(wang)獨(du)家(jia)撰(zhuan)稿(gao)，展望大选之(zhi)後(hou)這(zhe)个中亚腹(fu)地(di)国家的下(xia)一步(bu)发展軌(gui)跡(ji)，對(dui)中亚稳定和发展的影(ying)響(xiang)，以(yi)及(ji)对华關(guan)系(xi)前(qian)景(jing)。

【文(wen)/观察者网專(zhuan)欄(lan)作(zuo)者 图尔苏诺夫·巴体尔】

乌兹别克斯坦将于2023年(nian)7月9日举行提(ti)前的总统选举，这或(huo)将是(shi)这个中亚腹地人(ren)口(kou)大国今(jin)年最(zui)重(zhong)要(yao)的政(zheng)治(zhi)事(shi)件(jian)。

乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地區(qu)唯(wei)一與(yu)所(suo)有其(qi)他(ta)地区国家都(dou)接(jie)壤(rang)的国家，这包(bao)括(kuo)哈(ha)薩(sa)克斯坦、吉(ji)尔吉斯斯坦、塔(ta)吉克斯坦、土(tu)庫(ku)曼(man)斯坦和阿(e)富(fu)汗(han)。今天(tian)，乌兹别克斯坦的人口超(chao)過(guo)3600萬(wan)，幾(ji)乎(hu)占(zhan)中亚地区约7800万总人口的一半(ban)。目(mu)前，乌兹别克斯坦是“后苏聯(lian)空(kong)間(jian)”中繼(ji)俄(e)羅(luo)斯和乌克蘭(lan)之后的第(di)三(san)大人口大国。在(zai)上(shang)世(shi)紀(ji)90年代(dai)初(chu)，这个中亚共和国的人口约为2000万人。

乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地区具(ju)有豐(feng)富人文底(di)蘊(yun)和經(jing)济潛(qian)力(li)的大国（图片(pian)来源(yuan)：网絡(luo)）

来自(zi)該(gai)国各(ge)政黨(dang)的四(si)名(ming)候(hou)选人已(yi)登(deng)記(ji)參(can)加(jia)乌兹别克斯坦的总统选举，包括人民(min)民主(zhu)党的乌盧(lu)格(ge)别克·伊(yi)诺亚托(tuo)夫，社(she)會(hui)民主党“公正(zheng)”的罗巴洪(hong)·馬(ma)赫(he)穆(mu)多(duo)娃(wa)，生態(tai)党的阿布(bu)杜(du)舒(shu)库尔·哈姆(mu)紮(zha)耶夫，以及现任总统沙(sha)夫卡(ka)特(te)·米尔济约耶夫。“民族(zu)復(fu)興(xing)”民主党沒(mei)有提名自己(ji)的候选人，而(er)是选擇(ze)支(zhi)持(chi)米尔济约耶夫。

外(wai)界(jie)观察人士(shi)稱(cheng)，如(ru)果(guo)米尔济约耶夫成(cheng)功(gong)连任，他将继續(xu)推(tui)行2016年初任時(shi)即宣(xuan)布的大刀(dao)闊(kuo)斧(fu)改(gai)革(ge)進(jin)程(cheng)。事實(shi)上，乌兹别克斯坦此(ci)时已经进入(ru)了(le)一个深(shen)刻(ke)變(bian)革与系统性(xing)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的階(jie)段(duan)。

乌兹别克斯坦的大規(gui)模(mo)改革波(bo)及社会和国家的所有領(ling)域(yu)，包括其外交(jiao)政策(ce)，使乌兹别克斯坦搖(yao)身(shen)变为中亚最具活(huo)力的发展中国家。2023年4月举行的全(quan)民公決(jue)更(geng)新了《乌兹别克斯坦共和国憲(xian)法(fa)》，鞏(gong)固(gu)了乌社会和国家现代化(hua)的戰(zhan)略(lve)路(lu)線(xian)，对乌外交政策產(chan)生了積(ji)極(ji)影响，尤(you)其是在中亚地区。

即将举行的选举結(jie)果将决定乌兹别克斯坦下一步发展轨迹。米尔济约耶夫总统多次(ci)指(zhi)出(chu)，政府(fu)仍(reng)有許(xu)多工(gong)作要做(zuo)，但(dan)改革、更新和现代化是不(bu)可(ke)逆(ni)转的。世界銀(yin)行专家指出，盡(jin)管(guan)全世界，尤其是歐(ou)洲(zhou)和中亚地区的经济形(xing)勢(shi)較(jiao)为艱(jian)難(nan)，但乌兹别克斯坦仍然(ran)致(zhi)力于推行最重要的改革。米尔济约耶夫总统啟(qi)動(dong)的大规模改革計(ji)劃(hua)已经取(qu)得了重大进展，特别是推行经济的開(kai)放(fang)。

分(fen)析(xi)人士称，乌兹别克斯坦的经济现代化和其日益(yi)增(zeng)長(chang)的政治开放性将推动整(zheng)个中亚地区的经济增长和政治稳定。乌兹别克斯坦是中亚地区人口最多的国家，也(ye)是其地理(li)中心(xin)。这些(xie)特點(dian)使乌成为该地区政治和经济的天然風(feng)向(xiang)標(biao)。

乌兹别克斯坦的经济转型和开放政策对中亚的稳定、安(an)全和发展非(fei)常(chang)重要。正如米尔济约耶夫总统所指出：“我(wo)們(men)的主要目标是共同(tong)将中亚建(jian)成一个稳定、经济发達(da)和繁(fan)榮(rong)的地区。”

自获得独立(li)以来，中亚各国首(shou)次證(zheng)明(ming)它(ta)们不僅(jin)有能(neng)力采(cai)取联合(he)行动，確(que)保(bao)其公民的福(fu)祉(zhi)和繁荣，還(hai)有能力就(jiu)共同的区域难題(ti)做出决定。今天，中亚各国正在不斷(duan)努(nu)力推行地区安全与稳定、实现社会经济可持续发展的艰巨(ju)任務(wu)。

我们在短(duan)时间內(nei)消(xiao)除(chu)了很(hen)多障(zhang)礙(ai)，首先是敏(min)感(gan)的邊(bian)界問(wen)题。我们为中亚各国公民的自由(you)流(liu)动、开展积极的文化和旅(lv)遊(you)交流創(chuang)造(zao)了條(tiao)件。我们首次启动了联合工業(ye)合作項(xiang)目，开始(shi)構(gou)建新的價(jia)值(zhi)鏈(lian)。乌兹别克斯坦与吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的投(tou)資(zi)基(ji)金(jin)已经建立，将为工业、農(nong)业部(bu)門(men)、能源、基礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)、汽(qi)車(che)和其他领域的项目提供(gong)资金。

中亚地区已经形成了一个有利(li)的營(ying)商(shang)環(huan)境(jing)，有助(zhu)于貿(mao)易(yi)的增长。乌兹别克斯坦已经开始与该地区的几乎所有国家建立边境贸易和经济区。得益于此，区域内贸易在过去(qu)五(wu)年间翻(fan)了一番(fan)，这是一个史(shi)無(wu)前例(li)的成果。在此期(qi)间，该地区各国的GDP总量(liang)增加了750億(yi)美(mei)元(yuan)，达到3580亿美元。这些变化都对中亚国家人民的日常生活帶(dai)来了积极影响，改善(shan)了他们的生活，有助于加強(qiang)该地区的稳定。顯(xian)然，乌兹别克斯坦的改革及其新的地区政策促(cu)进了中亚国家经济发展的增速(su)。

在过去的五年间，中亚发生了深刻的变化，從(cong)一个緊(jin)張(zhang)和沖(chong)突(tu)的地区变成了一个互(hu)信(xin)、合作与和睦(mu)的地区。中亚国家领导人所关註(zhu)的議(yi)题也发生了变化，现在主要的合作议题转变为贸易、经济、投资、文化和人道(dao)主義(yi)等(deng)领域的互联互通(tong)。

簡(jian)而言(yan)之，近(jin)年来，乌兹别克斯坦与鄰(lin)国的合作已经具備(bei)了全新、系统性和动态的特征(zheng)。国際(ji)社会認(ren)識(shi)到，只(zhi)有一个稳定、动态发展、繁荣的中亚地区才(cai)能成为有吸(xi)引(yin)力的、建设性的、可长期的合作夥(huo)伴(ban)。

乌兹别克斯坦于2017年发起(qi)的中亚国家元首協(xie)商会议機(ji)制(zhi)已成功启动，助力形成共识，共同探(tan)索(suo)解(jie)决区域安全和可持续发展难题。积极的、建设性的政治对話(hua)将加强互信，讓(rang)中亚国家对中亚的现在和未(wei)来承(cheng)擔(dan)共同責(ze)任。在此期间，乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和土库曼斯坦的雙(shuang)边关系已升(sheng)級(ji)战略伙伴关系，与哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦已升级至(zhi)同盟(meng)关系。

今天，该地区国家正在"中亚+"对话形式(shi)的框(kuang)架(jia)内与主要国家建立平(ping)衡(heng)、建设性和互利的关系。2023年5月，中亚国家与中国的第一次领导人峰(feng)会在中国古(gu)城(cheng)西(xi)安成功举辦(ban)，为中亚国家与中国关系的歷(li)史翻开了展新的一頁(ye)。

同时，乌兹别克斯坦还在上海(hai)合作組(zu)織(zhi)框架内与中国积极开展合作。在2022年9月撒(sa)马尔罕(han)峰会期间，中国国家主席(xi)習(xi)近平对乌兹别克斯坦进行了国事訪(fang)问，这再(zai)次证实了兩(liang)国之间全面(mian)战略伙伴关系的高(gao)水(shui)平。乌兹别克斯坦和中国在偉(wei)大的絲(si)綢(chou)之路上有著(zhe)數(shu)百(bai)年的联系，在“一带一路”倡(chang)议的框架下开展了富有成效(xiao)的合作。米尔济约耶夫总统参加了2017年和2019年在北(bei)京(jing)举行的两次高级别国际論(lun)壇(tan)。

总的来說(shuo)，这次选举结果将决定乌兹别克斯坦的内部发展轨迹，反(fan)映(ying)出中亚区域合作的趨(qu)势和乌中全面战略伙伴关系的前景。其中重要的因素是堅(jian)持大规模改革的路线，以及继续推行乌兹别克斯坦共和国开放、平衡的外交政策。

翻页为英(ying)文全文：

Elections in Uzbekistan: a factor of stability and development in Central Asia

Early elections of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan will be held in Uzbekistan on July 9, 2023. This is perhaps the most important political event this year in the most populous country located in the heart of Central Asia.

Uzbekistan is the only state in Central Asia that borders with all other countries of the region – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Today, the population of Uzbekistan is over 36 million people, or almost half of the population of the entire region – about 78 million people.

Currently, Uzbekistan is the third most populous country in the post-Soviet space after Russia and Ukraine. In the early 90s of the last century, the population of this Central Asian republic was about 20 million people.

Four candidates from the country's political parties have been registered to participate in the presidential elections in Uzbekistan. In particular, Ulugbek Inoyatov – from the People's Democratic Party, Robakhon Makhmudova – from the Social Democratic Party"Adolat" (Justice), Abdushukur Khamzayev – from the Ecoparty, as well as the current President Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

“Milliy Tiklanish” Party (National Revival) did not nominate its candidate, but supported the candidacy of Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

According to observers, if elected, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will continue his course of large-scale reforms, which he announced when he assumed the post of head of state at the end of 2016. And, indeed, Uzbekistan has entered a period of profound changes and systemic transformation.

Large-scale reforms in Uzbekistan, which affected all spheres of life of Uzbek society and the state, including its foreign policy, contributed to the transformation of this country into the most dynamically developing country in the region. The Constitution of the Republic of Uzbekistan, updated during the referendum held in April 2023, consolidated the country's strategic course for the modernization of society and the state, which had a positive impact on its foreign policy, primarily in the Central Asian region.

The results of the upcoming elections will determine the trajectory where Uzbekistan will move on in its further development. There is still much to be done, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has repeatedly noted, but reforms, renewal and modernization are irreversible.

The World Bank experts noted that Uzbekistan remains committed to the most important reforms, despite the difficult situation around the world and in the region of Europe and Central Asia. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has launched a large-scale reform program, in which significant progress has been made, especially in the field of economic liberalization.

According to analysts, the economic modernization of Uzbekistan and its growing political openness can have huge consequences for economic growth and political stability throughout Central Asia. Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia and its geographical center. These features make him a natural and historical trendsetter of political and economic fashion in the region.

The transformation of Uzbekistan's economy and the policy of openness are important for the stability, security and development of Central Asia. As the President of Uzbekistan noted:"Our main goal is to jointly transform Central Asia into a stable, economically developed and prosperous region."

For the first time since gaining their independence, the Central Asian States have confirmed their ability not only to take joint actions to ensure the well-being and prosperity of their citizens, but also to make decisions on common regional problems. Today, the countries of the region are consistently solving the difficult tasks of ensuring security and stability, sustainable socio-economic development of Central Asia.

A lot of barriers have been eliminated in a short time, first of all, sensitive border problems. Conditions have been created for the free movement of citizens, active cultural and tourist exchanges between the countries of the region.

For the first time, the implementation of joint industrial cooperation projects has been launched, new value chains are being created. Investment funds of Uzbekistan with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been established to finance projects in the fields of industry, the agricultural sector, energy, infrastructure, automotive and other areas.

A favorable environment has been formed in Central Asia, which contributes to the growth of mutual trade. Uzbekistan has started creating border trade and economic zones with almost all countries of the region. Thanks to this, intraregional trade has doubled over the past five years. This is an unprecedented case. The total GDP of the countries of the region increased by $75 billion during this period. to over $358 billion.

All these changes have a positive impact on the daily life of the peoples of the Central Asian countries, improving their well-being, contributing to strengthening stability in the region. It is obvious that the reforms in Uzbekistan and its new regional policy have contributed to a serious acceleration of the economic development of the Central Asian countries.

Over the past five years, there has been a serious transformation of Central Asia, which has gone from a region of tension and conflict to a zone of mutual trust, cooperation and partnership. The agenda of the leaders of the Central Asian states has changed, in which issues of implementing common projects of interconnectedness in the spheres of trade, economy, investment, cultural and humanitarian ties already prevail today.

In short, in recent years, the dynamic trends of Uzbekistan's cooperation with neighboring states have acquired a qualitatively new, systemic and dynamic character. The international community recognizes that only a stable, dynamically developing and prosperous Central Asia can become an attractive, constructive and long-term partner.

This is evidenced by the fact that during this short period, Uzbekistan's bilateral relations with the countries of the region have been raised to the level of strategic partnership (Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan) and alliance (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan).

The mechanism of Consultative Meetings of the heads of Central Asian States initiated by Uzbekistan in 2017 has been successfully launched, contributing to the formation of common approaches and joint search for solutions to problems of regional security and sustainable development. An active, constructive political dialogue has become a key factor in strengthening mutual trust and the common responsibility of the Central Asian States for the present and future of the region.

Today, the countries of the region are building balanced, constructive and mutually beneficial relations with leading states within the framework of the dialogue format"Central Asia Plus". Thus, in May 2023, the first summit of the leaders of the Central Asian countries and China was successfully held in the ancient city of Xi'an, which opened a new page in the history of relations between the countries of the region and China.

At the same time, Uzbekistan actively cooperates with China within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As part of participation in the Samarkand Summit in September 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a state visit to Uzbekistan, which once again confirmed the high level of relations of comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries.

Uzbekistan and China, which have centuries-old ties along the Great Silk Road, are carrying out fruitful cooperation within the framework of the Belt and Road initiative. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took part in two high-level international forums held in Beijing in 2017 and 2019.

In general, summarizing the above, we can say that the election results will determine the trajectory of Uzbekistan's internal development, reflecting on the dynamics of regional cooperation in Central Asia and the prospects of Uzbek-Chinese relations of comprehensive strategic partnership. Important factors in this are the preservation of the course for large-scale reforms and the continuation of an open, balanced foreign policy of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

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