四川电视台经济频道

<随心_句子c><随心_句子c><随心_句子c><随心_句子c><随心_句子c>鮑(bao)威(wei)爾(er)重(zhong)申(shen)：6月(yue)只(zhi)是(shi)“暫(zan)緩(huan)” 加(jia)息(xi)！絕(jue)大(da)多(duo)數(shu)FOMC成(cheng)員(yuan)都(dou)支(zhi)持(chi)進(jin)壹(yi)步(bu)加息（附(fu)全(quan)文(wen)）

美(mei)聯(lian)儲(chu)主(zhu)席(xi)鲍威尔周(zhou)三(san)重申，未(wei)來(lai)可(ke)能(neng)會(hui)有(you)更(geng)多的(de)加息，直(zhi)到(dao)在(zai)降(jiang)低(di)通(tong)脹(zhang)方(fang)面(mian)取(qu)得(de)更多进展(zhan)。

當(dang)地(di)時(shi)間(jian)周三，他(ta)在向(xiang)眾(zhong)議(yi)院(yuan)金(jin)融(rong)服(fu)務(wu)委(wei)员会提(ti)交(jiao)的證(zheng)詞(ci)中(zhong)，再(zai)次(ci)強(qiang)調(tiao)6月暂缓加息只是臨(lin)时的舉(ju)措(cuo)，並(bing)不(bu)代(dai)表(biao)美联储已(yi)經(jing)完(wan)成加息。

他表示(shi)：

"幾(ji)乎(hu)所(suo)有FOMC參(can)與(yu)者(zhe)都預(yu)計(ji)，應(ying)該(gai)在年(nian)底(di)前(qian)进一步提高(gao)利(li)率(lv)。"

鲍威尔認(ren)為(wei)，通貨(huo)膨(peng)胀雖(sui)然(ran)已经降溫(wen)，但(dan)"仍(reng)然遠(yuan)远高於(yu)"美联储2%的目(mu)標(biao)，說(shuo)明(ming)美联储仍有許(xu)多工(gong)作(zuo)要(yao)做(zuo)。

他表示：

"自(zi)去(qu)年年中以(yi)来，通货膨胀已经有所缓和(he)，盡(jin)管(guan)如(ru)此(ci)，通胀壓(ya)力(li)仍然很(hen)高，讓(rang)通胀率回(hui)落(luo)到2%的過(guo)程(cheng)還(hai)有很長(chang)的路(lu)要走(zou)。"

美联储官(guan)员通常(chang)更關(guan)註(zhu)不包(bao)含(han)視(shi)頻(pin)和能源(yuan)價(jia)格(ge)的核(he)心(xin)通胀指(zhi)标。4月份(fen)，美國(guo)核心CPI小(xiao)幅(fu)下(xia)降0.1%至(zhi)4.7%，但5月数據(ju)又(you)回升(sheng)至5.3%，表明通胀粘(zhan)性(xing)較(jiao)高。

鲍威尔还表示，美国勞(lao)動(dong)力市(shi)場(chang)依(yi)然火(huo)熱(re)，開(kai)放(fang)的工作崗(gang)位(wei)数量(liang)仍然远远超(chao)过了(le)可用(yong)的劳动力储備(bei)。

此外(wai)，鲍威尔强调稱(cheng)，利率決(jue)议將(jiang)根(gen)据经濟(ji)数据逐(zhu)次做出(chu)，并不存(cun)在预設(she)的路線(xian)。

新(xin)美联储通訊(xun)社(she)”Nick Timiraos表示，美联储主席鲍威尔向国会準(zhun)备的证词与上(shang)周新聞(wen)發(fa)布(bu)会上的开场白(bai)相(xiang)比(bi)，几乎沒(mei)有新的措辭(ci)。

以下为鲍威尔向美国众议院提交的证词全文：

【中文版(ban)】

美联储主席鲍威尔向美国众议院金融服务委员会提交的半(ban)年度(du)货幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)報(bao)告(gao)

主席麥(mai)克(ke)亨(heng)利、议员沃(wo)特(te)斯(si)女(nv)士(shi)以及(ji)委员会其(qi)他成员，感(gan)謝(xie)您(nin)們(men)給(gei)予(yu)我(wo)機(ji)会介(jie)紹(shao)美联储的半年度货币政策报告。

我们美联储始(shi)終(zhong)專(zhuan)注于實(shi)現(xian)我们的雙(shuang)重使(shi)命(ming)，即(ji)促(cu)进美国民(min)众的最(zui)大就(jiu)業(ye)和穩(wen)定(ding)物(wu)价。我和我的同(tong)事(shi)们理(li)解(jie)高通胀所帶(dai)来的困(kun)難(nan)，并堅(jian)决致(zhi)力于将通胀率降至2%的目标水(shui)平(ping)。物价稳定是美联储的責(ze)任(ren)，没有物价稳定，经济就無(wu)法(fa)为任何(he)人(ren)提供(gong)幫(bang)助(zhu)。特別(bie)是在没有物价稳定的情(qing)況(kuang)下，我们无法实现持久(jiu)的有利于所有人的强勁(jin)劳动力市场狀(zhuang)况。

在討(tao)論(lun)货币政策之(zhi)前，我将回顧(gu)当前的经济形(xing)勢(shi)。

当前的经济形势和展望(wang)

去年美国经济增(zeng)长顯(xian)著(zhu)放缓，最近(jin)的指标表明经济活(huo)动仍在以温和的速(su)度擴(kuo)張(zhang)。尽管今(jin)年消(xiao)費(fei)支出增长有所加快(kuai)，但住(zhu)房(fang)市场活动仍疲(pi)軟(ruan)，主要原(yuan)因(yin)是抵(di)押(ya)利率上升。较高的利率和较慢(man)的產(chan)出增长似(si)乎也(ye)對(dui)企(qi)业固(gu)定投(tou)資(zi)产生(sheng)了压力。

劳动力市场仍然非(fei)常緊(jin)张。今年前五(wu)個(ge)月，每(mei)月的就业增加平均(jun)達(da)到了强劲的31.4萬(wan)个就业岗位。失(shi)业率在5月上升，但仍然保(bao)持在3.7%的低水平。劳动力市场的供需(xu)有一些(xie)跡(ji)象(xiang)表明正(zheng)在趨(qu)于更好(hao)的平衡(heng)。劳动参与率近几个月有所上升，尤(you)其是25至54歲(sui)的人群(qun)。名(ming)義(yi)工资增长有些放缓，今年迄(qi)今为止(zhi)職(zhi)位空(kong)缺(que)也有所下降。虽然就业-工人之间的缺口(kou)已经縮(suo)小，但劳动需求(qiu)仍然大大超过了可用工人的供应。

通胀率仍远高于我们2%的长期(qi)目标。截(jie)至4月份的12个月內(nei)，个人消费支出价格總(zong)指数（PCE）上漲(zhang)了4.4%；在排(pai)除(chu)食(shi)品(pin)和能源等(deng)波(bo)动较大的類(lei)别後(hou)，核心PCE价格上涨了4.7%。5月份，消费者价格指数（CPI）的12个月變(bian)化(hua)率为4.0%，核心CPI变化率为5.3%。通胀压力從(cong)去年年中以来有所缓解。尽管如此，通胀压力仍然很高，将通胀率降至2%的过程还有很长的路要走。尽管通胀率较高，但长期通胀预期似乎保持良(liang)好，這(zhe)體(ti)现在家(jia)庭(ting)、企业和预測(ce)者的廣(guang)泛(fan)调查(zha)以及金融市场的指标中。

货币政策

由(you)于通胀率仍远高于我们2%的长期目标，并且(qie)劳动力市场状况仍然紧张，美联储公(gong)开市场委员会（FOMC）大幅收(shou)紧了货币政策立(li)场。自去年初(chu)以来，我们已将政策利率上调了5个百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)，并繼(ji)續(xu)以快節(jie)奏(zou)減(jian)少(shao)我们的证券(quan)持倉(cang)。我们已经看(kan)到我们的紧缩政策对经济中最受(shou)利率敏(min)感的部(bu)門(men)的需求产生了影(ying)響(xiang)。然而(er)，对于货币紧缩的全部影响，尤其是对通胀的影响，需要时间才(cai)能实现。

经济面临著(zhe)家庭和企业信(xin)貸(dai)條(tiao)件(jian)收紧的阻(zu)力，这可能对经济活动、就业和通胀产生影响。这些影响的程度仍不確(que)定。

考(kao)慮(lv)到我们在紧缩货币政策方面取得的进展、货币政策对经济的影响滯(zhi)后的不确定性以及信贷紧缩可能带来的阻力，上周FOMC决定将联邦(bang)基(ji)金利率目标區(qu)间維(wei)持在5%至5?%之间，并继续大幅减少我们的证券持仓。几乎所有FOMC参与者预计，到年底时適(shi)当的加息幅度将进一步增加。但在上周的会议上，考虑到我们的行(xing)动幅度和速度，我们认为稳定利率目标区间是明智(zhi)的，以便(bian)让委员会評(ping)估(gu)額(e)外信息及其对货币政策的影响。在确定可能适合(he)长期将通胀率回歸(gui)2%的额外货币政策调整(zheng)程度时，我们将考虑货币政策的累(lei)積(ji)紧缩、货币政策对经济活动和通胀的影响滞后以及经济和金融发展。我们将继续根据全部新数据及其对经济活动和通胀前景(jing)以及風(feng)險(xian)平衡的影响，逐次进行决策。

我们致力于将通胀率降至2%的目标水平，并保持长期通胀预期保持良好。降低通胀可能需要一个低于趋势增长水平的时期和劳动力市场状况的柔(rou)化。恢(hui)復(fu)价格稳定对于实现最大就业和长期稳定的物价至关重要。

在結(jie)束(shu)之前，让我簡(jian)要談(tan)一下銀(yin)行业的状况。美国银行体系(xi)健(jian)康(kang)且具(ju)有韌(ren)性。正如6月货币政策报告中关于金融稳定的内容(rong)所述(shu)，美联储与財(cai)政部和联邦存款(kuan)保险公司(si)在3月采(cai)取了果(guo)斷(duan)行动，以保護(hu)美国经济并增强公众对我们银行体系的信心。最近的银行倒(dao)閉(bi)，包括(kuo)矽(gui)谷(gu)银行的倒闭以及由此产生的银行压力，凸(tu)显了确保我们擁(yong)有适当的規(gui)則(ze)和監(jian)管做法以应对这些规模(mo)的银行的重要性。我们致力于解决这些脆(cui)弱(ruo)性，以建(jian)立一个更强大和更有彈(dan)性的银行体系。

我们明白我们的行动影响着全国各(ge)地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切(qie)都是为了履(lv)行我们的公共(gong)使命。美联储将竭(jie)尽全力实现我们的最大就业和物价稳定目标。

谢谢。我很樂(le)意(yi)回答(da)您的問(wen)題(ti)。

【英(ying)文版】

Chairman McHenry, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

The U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.

The labor market remains very tight. Over the first five months of the year, job gains averaged a robust 314,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up but remained low in May, at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.1

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.4 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.7 percent. In May, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.

Monetary Policy

With inflation remaining well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with labor market conditions remaining tight, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 percentage points since early last year and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.2 We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.3 The extent of these effects remains uncertain.

In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week's meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.

We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

Before concluding, let me briefly address the condition of the banking sector. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As detailed in the box on financial stability in the June Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, took decisive action in March to protect the U.S. economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system. The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size. We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and more resilient banking system.

We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.返(fan)回搜(sou)狐(hu)，查看更多

责任編(bian)輯(ji)：